Or stay on the sidelines?

No doubt about it. For real estate, the skies are dark with news of high foreclosures from the sub-prime mess, sales are down, credit standards are being raised, there’s high inventory, uncertainty about the economy – you name it, it’s big news in the media today.

So who in their right mind is thinking about buying today? Not surprisingly, it depends, but two categories of potential buyers are emerging. First time home buyers, and those who need to upgrade their current living arrangements.

The drop in real estate values has certainly cut a wide swath across America. But here in Ventura County, it has also had the beneficial effect of putting home ownership within the reach of many who’ve been previously shut out. This is making a huge difference for thousands of renters – home ownership has simply been too expensive here.

Secondly, many families simply need a larger home, but with the astronomical jump in prices just simply couldn’t move up. Yes, the value of their current home is down, but the relative jump to a larger home is now more attainable.

So, why are some potential buyers starting to kick around the idea of buying? Let’s start with entry level buyers.

• Big reduction in home prices. For example, entry level condos (McKeon condos) in Ventura were selling for $350,000 during the heyday. Now, a buyer can buy a McKeon condo in the low $200s – a huge difference. For single family homes, it used to be an entry level home was around $600,000. Now, it’s in the low to mid $400’s.

• Financing. Interest rates are still low. Track rates at BankRate.com – you can chart trends for different types of loans. For the past 5 years, interest rates have been generally in the 5 – 6% range.

First time buyers – look here for special State of California financing! We highly recommend this little known State program. Are you a public school teacher in a lower performing school (API ranking)? Check out the “Extra Credit” program!

• Lots of inventory. You’ve got lots of choices now. During the heyday, you bought whatever came on the market today – no time to think! Time pressures generally aren’t what they used to be.

A lot of properties are now bank owned, or REO (Real Estate Owned) properties. These can be great values, and cover the spectrum from entry level condos to hillside homes.

But – the downside!

Falling prices. What will prices do in the future? Have we reached bottom? That’s the $64,000 question.

The economy – where are we going?

Finally, some food for thought.  What’s your motivation for buying? Many buyers in the heyday weren’t really buying a house as a home. They were speculators. They were hoping for a big future payday.

Yes, everybody wants their home to go up in value, but that should be icing on the cake, not the primary motivation. Leslie and I have seen big downturns like this before (early 1990s). The early to mid 1990s saw great buying opportunities, very reminiscent of today.

It you’re trying to “time” the market by buying at the absolute bottom, you probably have more of an investor mindset. The truth is, by the time you’ve discovered “the bottom” the market has moved, because it’s only with hindsight we see this.

Our advice. Track the monthly statistics right here. This will give you a clear picture of trends for Ventura, Oxnard and Camarillo. Remember that our County still offers a highly desirable lifestyle, strong economic base, is close to a very strong region (LA) and lots of people still want to live and work here! Then start kicking the tires!